One thing I love about games is figuring out the chances of things happening. So I made a thread on a different forum to post about probability things I have done, but it has fallen into disuse, and is pretty cluttered, so I thought I'd repost a bit of it over here, to perhaps start a bit of discussion.

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**Advance Rolls**

The 2d6 chart on page 87 of the ORB has lots of things going on, but which things are common, which are uncommon? Well, percentage wise, there are only 4 brackets. Here they are:

27.7% --> New skill, based on gang type.

13.8% --> WS, BS

8.3% --> I, LD

5.5% --> S, T, W, A, or Any new skill.

So every time a character levels up, he has about a 1/3 chance of getting a skill. The hard ones to get are some of the best, like Toughness and Wounds, which makes sense.

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**Red Dot Laser Sight**

This sight gives the user a +1 chance to hit, but gives the person you hit a 1/6 chance to dodge it. Originally my old group thought "That's dumb, gives you +1/6 chance to hit, and then they ignore it 1/6 of the time, it cancels itself out!"

Well, not really. Not all 1/6 are equal.

This little chart has 4 columns.

Roll Req - Number someone would need to hit their target, without the laser sight.

Base% - Percent chance to hit, without the sight.

Dot% - Chance of hitting with the sight (taking the dodge roll into account). This is ((Base% + 16.7%) X 83.3%)

%Improvement - How much better the dot% is than the base%. This is found by (Dot% / Base%).

`Roll Req Base% Dot% %Improvement`

9+ 2.8% 4.6% 64.3%

8+ 5.6% 6.9% 23.2%

7+ 8.3% 13.9% 67.5%

6+ 16.7% 27.7% 65.8%

5+ 33.3% 41.7% 25.2%

4+ 50% 55.6% 11.1%

3+ 66.7% 69.4% 4%

Rolls of 2 are actually hurt by the dot, since there is no improved chance to hit, it would just give them a dodge save, so you would turn it off in that case.

So what this means is that, the worse your chance to hit, the more it helps you hit. So despite what your first impulse is, don't give the dot to a sniper type, give it to that juve or ganger that can't seem to hit the broad side of a barn. They will get much more use out of it.

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**Archeotech Territory, and the chance of abusing and losing it**

So, if you have archeotech, you can get 2d6x10 from it with no worries, or bump it up to 3,4,5 or 6 dice. Thing is, roll a double, and you lose the archeotech. So what is the chance of messing it up for each one?

Roll 3 dice -> 1-(1 x 5/6 x 4/6) =1-(20/36) --> 44.4% Chance of losing.

Roll 4 dice -> 1-(1 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6) = 1-(60/216) --> 72.2% Chance of losing.

Roll 5 dice -> (math omitted, gets long) --> 90.8% Chance of losing.

Roll 6 dice -> (this is equivalent to rolling a Yahtzee, no rerolls) --> 98.46% Chance of losing.

For some explanation of how the math works, I'll explain the 3 dice roll, since it just expands out depending on the number of dice.

You just figure out the chance of it not happening, aka you roll 3 separate numbers, and then subtract the one. So, the first dice you roll has a 100% chance of being a unique number, since it is the first dice. Then, the 2nd dice has a 5/6 chance of being a unique number, any number besides what the first dice is. The 3rd dice has a 4/6 chance of being a unique number, any number besides what the first or second dice were. Therefore, you have a 1 x 5/6 x 4/6 chance of passing the test, or a 1 - (1 x 5/6 x 4/6) chance of failing it.

So yeah, even rolling 3 dice on it is asking for a good chance of failing. 5 or more and passing becomes a miracle. The fixer trait lets you reroll, making it so you have to fail the test twice. This is just (Chance of losing)^2.

Fixer results would be:

3 dice --> 19.7% Chance of losing

4 dice --> 52.1% Chance of losing

5 dice --> 82.4% Chance of losing

6 dice --> 96.9% Chance of losing

So fixers make 3 or 4 dice more manageable, but anything above is definitely reckless.

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**Mung Vase**

These things are just a gamble, but how good of a gamble? What's your chance of profiting from this? Well, lets look at the numbers.

The cost: 10 X 1d6. 10 creds at the cheapest, 60 at the most. Average cost of 35 creds

For the sales values, you roll a d6. Some are terrible, some are actually pretty good.

1: Fake, worthless, 0 creds.

2: "Fake", but worth 1d6 creds. Low - 1, High - 6, **Avg - 3.5**

3: 30+4d6 creds. Low - 34, High - 54, **Avg - 44**

4: 30+6d6 creds. Low - 36, High - 66, **Avg - 51**

5: 5x2d6 creds. Low - 10, High - 60, **Avg - 35** (this is worse than the 3rd or 4th outcomes!)

6: 10x2d6 creds. Low - 20, High - 120, **Avg - 70**

So, if the average price of the vase is 35, then on a 3,4 and 6 you will on average make some money, on a 5 you will break even, and a 1 or 2 you will lose badly.

The overall average sale price is: (sum of averages / total outcomes) = (0+3.5+44+51+35+70) / 6 = **~33.91 creds**.

On average, if you roll up a mung vase, you will probably lose money. But if that vase is only 10 or 20 credits, I would definitely advise snatching it up. If your vase is offered at 50 or 60, definitely pass. If you brought along a ganger to help you search for items... well... lets just hope you roll low for the buying price. If you are insanely lucky, you could make 110 credits out of this deal. On the opposite end, you could just throw 60 credits into the nearest chempit and come out equal.